Independence versus Part of the Union

Ever wondered what Welsh Labour's views are on the future of Wales, but were too afraid to ask for fear of upsetting a coalition-caring AM? Ask a councillor. How far should Wales travel down the road towards independence? Following Plaid Cymru AM Helen Mary Jones’ essay on the issue, Labour councillor David Rees today presents an alternative view.

I WOULD like to set out for the Welsh people what I believe are the key facts about the devastating impact separation from Britain would have on Wales.

Recent research by Channel 4 News has highlighted the fact that Wales receives £5.4bn more to spend on public services each year than we pay in taxes.

This is the approximate amount of money that Wales spends each year on the entire NHS. This money would disappear from Wales on day one of separation.

There would be no transition period of 20 years. The English Government, as it would be, would, quite rightly, keep this money to spend in England.

What the English Government would do with all this extra money, we cannot know. They could increase public sector pay. This would result in a brain drain from Wales to England of nurses and teachers.

They could slash corporation tax. This would result in Welsh companies being unable to compete and relocating just over the border, taking thousands of jobs with them.

In addition, on day one of independence, Wales would receive its share of what was the United Kingdom’s debt. We can only assume this would be derived on a pro rata basis of the population. Current UK national debt is approximately £500bn. This would mean on day one of Plaid Cymru’s independent Wales, they would have to finance approximately £25bn of debt.

Now I’m not a pessimist by nature, but I can foresee that were this to happen, Plaid Cymru would be going to the International Monetary Fund with the begging bowl on day two of independence.

Helen Mary Jones makes the case for independence by pointing out the relatively high GDPs of countries like Ireland and Norway. What she fails to mention are the true facts behind these figures. Ireland’s relatively current high GDP figures mask the fact that much of this wealth is held by multinationals, which Ireland has attracted with the aid of lavish handouts from European taxpayers. However, money held by multinationals goes back to the parent country of the company and does not get circulated in the domestic economy.

Norway is probably the richest country on earth per head of population. There is one simple reason for this. Norway is surrounded by huge amounts of oil and gas. Norway is the world’s third biggest exporter of oil. Successive governments there have kept hold of the money generated to create the only sovereign wealth fund of any western country, valued at approximately $400bn.

To my knowledge there are no vast reserves of gas and oil off the Welsh coast that we can sell.

What plan would Plaid Cymru have in place to provide jobs to the thousands of civil servants who will surely lose their jobs on day one of independence?

Thousands of civil servants will be jobless from the DVLA, the Office for National Statistics, the Patent Office and Her Majesty’s Revenue and Customs Offices.

This would have a devastating effect on those local economies.

How many millions of pounds find their way into the tills of shopkeepers in Swansea from the many staff working at the DVLA?

Thousands of military personal would be jobless and we could very quickly say goodbye to the £16bn training academy in the Vale of Glamorgan.

Plaid Cymru will say people like me talk Wales down. Far from it. All I am doing is highlighting the realistic facts.

The fact is that Wales does very well from being a strong player in the United Kingdom and that the United Kingdom is immensely stronger for having Wales as part of it.

Independence for Plaid is an ideology, nothing else. A dream, if it came true, which would have very serious consequences in 21st century Wales.

Welsh Government Package for Disabled Children

Miss Wagstaff hears that there has been a call for the Assembly to cough up the 'consequential' in response to a massive investment in disabled children in England.

It is feared the £21m – Wales’ share of a £340m UK government package for disabled children – has been swallowed up by the general health, social services and education budgets, already struggling under the strain of a tight financial settlement.

In England this money will be used to fund short breaks for disabled children, provide childcare and support, and help disabled children shape the services they need.

The equivalent funding for Wales, known as a consequential, amounts to £21m. But the money is not ring-fenced and the Assembly Government is under no obligation to spend the money in the same area as England – in this case, on disabled children.

Labour AM Lynne Neagle has managed to get herself on the front page of today's Western Mail, along with a few high profile children's charities. She has called for the Assembly to cough up the money and put us on par with England.

Wayne Crocker, from Mencap Cymru, said:

Without real money to help them do this they will continue to be left at the bottom of the box and live lives limited by the type of poor opportunities given to them in today’s Wales.

The Plaid Cymru/ Labour coalition are saying "NO", which shouldn't be a big surprise after the recent budget announcement. Of particular interest, however, is Lynne Neagle's Statement of Opinion calling for the cash to be forthcoming. The Welsh Conservatives and Welsh Liberal Democrats have all signed up, and every Welsh Labour backbencher, bar one, has signed as well. However, as of Monday morning, only one Plaid Cymru AM, Leanne Wood, has signed.

How come? It has been explained to me that Helen Mary Jones might be trying to enforce a 'three line whip' (drastic measure) against signing the Statement of Opinion on the basis that... wait for it... it would mean the One Wales Government doing the same as they are doing in England!

This doesn't look good for disabled children in Wales, and all for the sake of Plaid keeping their political purity. As an aside, any idea who the only Labour backbencher not to sign is? Step forward former Plaid politician and now Labour AM, Alun Davies. Maybe he's trying to tell us something.

Update: 21 November 2007 at 11:30

The following was received from a reliable Plaid Cymru source.

This is Leanne Wood and Helen Mary Jones' amendment to the statement of opinion by Lynne Neagle. Worth adding to your blog discussion I should think.

This Assembly notes the evidence from the Children's NSF SAAT Report 06/07, showing that services for disabled children and their families are consistently the weakest area of service delivery across Wales.This Assembly therefore calls on the Welsh Assembly Government to reaffirm its commitment to fully implementing and funding both the NSF and the recommendations of the Equality of Opportunity committee report on services for young disabled people and to ring fence funding and make it clearly traceable through the Assembly government budget.