The Greatest Show on Earth*

The winner of the race to succeed Rhodri Morgan as leader of Labour in Wales and first minister in the Welsh assembly will be announced later.

The result will be announced at about 1730 GMT at the Wales Millennium Centre in Cardiff Bay.

Eligible to vote are Welsh Labour party members, affiliated groups such as trade unions, and its MPs, AMs and MEP.

The candidates are all AMs, with Carwyn Jones widely seen as the front runner, followed by Edwina Hart and Huw Lewis.

Whoever wins is due to be confirmed as first minister just over a week later.

The two-month election campaign began formally when Mr Morgan confirmed on 1 October that he was standing down, shortly after his 70th birthday.

Mr Morgan has held the top job in Wales since February 2000, and said it was the right time to go.

In Mr Morgan's current cabinet, Mr Jones is counsel general, or the assembly government's chief legal adviser, and leader of the house, who is in charge of getting government business through the assembly.

The vote is split equally three ways between:

• Party members
• Labour-affiliated trade unions and other organisations
• Elected AMs, MPs and the party's one MEP for Wales.

Members voted by ranking the candidates in order of preference on the ballot papers.
If one candidate has more than 50% of the vote after the first round of counting, the candidate with the lowest number of votes will be eliminated and their second preferences transferred to the remaining two to decide the winner.

* just watch Facebook profiles, groups, and blogs disappear overnight.

A sign of things to come...

The friend or foe debate

The final Labour party debate between the three candidates hoping to succeed Rhodri Morgan as leader in Wales will take place in Cardiff later.

The winner, announced in December, will also become Welsh First Minister.

Health Minister Edwina Hart, Counsel General Carwyn Jones and and AM Huw Lewis will argue their case before party members at Cardiff County Hall.

The three candidates can also be seen going head-to-head on Dragon's Eye on BBC One Wales tonight.

Voting by Welsh Labour members, local parties, affiliated groups, MPs, AMs and its MEP ends on 26 November.

The victor is due to be declared at around 1600 GMT on Tuesday, 1 December.

But the winner will have to wait around a week after that before her or she is confirmed as head of the Welsh Assembly Government.

The Labour hustings meeting, following four previous events in Rhyl, Narberth, Newport and Swansea, is not open to the wider public or media.

A television audience will also be able to see them taking part in the BBC Wales debate in front of a public audience later on Thursday night. The programme was recorded on Wednesday.

Dragon's Eye Debates, chaired by Betsan Powys, is broadcast at 2245 BST on Thursday BBC One Wales.

Three leg race to replace a three legged duck

Perhaps there are simply three legs to any race, even if three's a crowd:

Leg 1: Speculation surrounding who will put themselves forward for leadership.

Leg 2: Hopefuls dropping out and rallying round their favourite.

Leg 3: One contender entering contest to draw support from one camp in order for another contender to sail through and win.

Don't look at me. You were also thinking it!

Silly season comes home to leadership battle that hasn't begun

It's what Rhodri Morgan would want and hope for, but only gives journalists something to print during quieter times. Jane Hutt seemingly lays out her stall, however, pundits know that she's nothing to sell, no cash in the till, and not as personable as other stall owners.

EDUCATION Minister Jane Hutt has laid out a vision of how Labour in Wales can fight inequality and win the trust of the electorate ahead of Westminster and Assembly elections.

In a move that will be widely interpreted as setting out her leadership ambitions, the Vale of Glamorgan AM has given a rare interview highlighting the pressing need to narrow the gap between the nation’s haves and have-nots.

Despite remaining tight-lipped about her intentions (good of the Western Mail to prise it out of her most inner thoughts), Ms Hutt is increasingly seen as a contender to succeed Rhodri Morgan as First Minister if, as expected, he announces his retirement in the autumn.

Appealing to the masses

Just as one leader is about to make himself more appealing with the aid of voluntary work, another aims to make an appeal to the masses via a more direct appeal straight to the heart of party sympathisers (and mainly Welsh speaking).

N.B. No Labour AM has formally declared they intend to stand for the party's leadership. But Carwyn Jones, Merthyr Tydfil and Rhymney AM Huw Lewis and Gower AM and Health Minister Edwina Hart are all thought to be preparing campaigns.

Stay tuned but don't hold your breath over Summer.

Edwina Hart giving an interview (tick). Edwina Hart for First Minister (?)

Those of you that were watching BBC Wales' Dragon's Eye politics programme this evening experienced a rare treat - Edwina Hart, Assembly Member for Gower, and Minister for Health in Rhodri Morgan's Labour-led One Wales Government, giving an interview.

Edwina is a politician that likes, you could even say loves, getting stuck into any portfolio she's given, and with mixed success. It's hardly a Wales-wide secret that she loathes giving interviews. You could even say that she avoids them like the plague, or even an awkward announcement on health policy in South Wales. Sadly, she doesn't even prefer standing at the 'ministerial bench', and prefers to sit and read aloud notes during a plenary session.

Could it be that she's actually seriously considering standing for the Labour leadership?

Is Edwina pondering?

Playing the Regeneration Game

Rhondda AM Leighton Andrews has ruled himself out as a contender to replace First Minister Rhodri Morgan as leader of Welsh Labour. The rest of us did that a year last September.

Hurry up and take the photograph David, because now we're on our own.

Early Christmas present for Minister's constituents

Counsel General and Leader of the House Carwyn Jones AM has new office in town [Bridgend].

According to the Glamorgan Gazette, Minister Jones (unsure if we're allowed to call him Minister - not officially) is aiming to become Bridgend’s most accessible politician by taking up a new office in the town centre.

He is dipping into his own pocket to rent the former Mortgage House premises, at the top of pedestrianised Caroline Street, from landlords Compute Bridgend.

Mr Jones’ office is currently to be found at the top of a steep flight of stairs above Townsend Florist in Queen Street, Bridgend.

He said:

I’ve had a very generous landlady until now but I need somewhere more accessible as people have been struggling up the stairs to see me.

It’s important to be in the centre of Bridgend and I’m very grateful to be given the opportunity, which was too good to turn down.

I’ll have to finance some of it myself given the present state of allowances but it will give the accessibility people need.

I’ll still come out and visit people in their homes and hold surgeries in the community.

Welsh Labour members take note when voting for your new leader next year (if the main man doesn't stay on a while longer). Bridgend constituents take note while out Christmas shopping and overcome with the urge to reciprocate the Christmas cheer when passing Carwyn's new office.

[Pippa Wagstaff is currently on a blogging break]

What if...

Following on from Senedd Whip's earlier post speculating on Eluned Morgan MEP's gap two-years, my mind started to wonder or even wander over a glass or two of wine.

What if... Welsh Labour have designs on Eluned Morgan becoming leader in Wales. She is a woman and we all know that they prefer equal representation in Welsh democracy (and even in the civil service, moving on to Dame Gillian Morgan from Sir Jon Shortridge).

What if... Jane Davidson AM was persuaded to 'resign' her seat in the National Assembly, after all, it could be for personal reasons and she hasn't got to disclose them if she leaves sooner than expected. No scandal over an unnecessary by-election. She's already forewarned us about her intention to stand down in 2011.

What if... First Minister Rhodri Morgan considers it a good idea to prolong the leadership contest, after all he's feeling better and healthier than he has done for years; and is known for supporting Labour-friends above and beyond the call of duty, as seen with Ministers Jane and Jane.

What if... a by-election was called in Pontypridd before 2011 and a certain leading figure in Welsh Labour and constituent friend of Rhodri's was 'convinced' to stand for the good of the party, and won.

What if... the leadership contest of the Welsh Labour party was then held after a reasonable and respectable amount of time post by-election, and certain 'said constituency friend' of Rhodri Morgan had the backing of the man himself, the Welsh Labour party, and the unions.

This would - of course - annoy quite a few members in the process.

They say that 'What if...' is a game for scholars, of which I am not... but... what if...