The Greatest Show on Earth*

The winner of the race to succeed Rhodri Morgan as leader of Labour in Wales and first minister in the Welsh assembly will be announced later.

The result will be announced at about 1730 GMT at the Wales Millennium Centre in Cardiff Bay.

Eligible to vote are Welsh Labour party members, affiliated groups such as trade unions, and its MPs, AMs and MEP.

The candidates are all AMs, with Carwyn Jones widely seen as the front runner, followed by Edwina Hart and Huw Lewis.

Whoever wins is due to be confirmed as first minister just over a week later.

The two-month election campaign began formally when Mr Morgan confirmed on 1 October that he was standing down, shortly after his 70th birthday.

Mr Morgan has held the top job in Wales since February 2000, and said it was the right time to go.

In Mr Morgan's current cabinet, Mr Jones is counsel general, or the assembly government's chief legal adviser, and leader of the house, who is in charge of getting government business through the assembly.

The vote is split equally three ways between:

• Party members
• Labour-affiliated trade unions and other organisations
• Elected AMs, MPs and the party's one MEP for Wales.

Members voted by ranking the candidates in order of preference on the ballot papers.
If one candidate has more than 50% of the vote after the first round of counting, the candidate with the lowest number of votes will be eliminated and their second preferences transferred to the remaining two to decide the winner.

* just watch Facebook profiles, groups, and blogs disappear overnight.

A sign of things to come...

The friend or foe debate

The final Labour party debate between the three candidates hoping to succeed Rhodri Morgan as leader in Wales will take place in Cardiff later.

The winner, announced in December, will also become Welsh First Minister.

Health Minister Edwina Hart, Counsel General Carwyn Jones and and AM Huw Lewis will argue their case before party members at Cardiff County Hall.

The three candidates can also be seen going head-to-head on Dragon's Eye on BBC One Wales tonight.

Voting by Welsh Labour members, local parties, affiliated groups, MPs, AMs and its MEP ends on 26 November.

The victor is due to be declared at around 1600 GMT on Tuesday, 1 December.

But the winner will have to wait around a week after that before her or she is confirmed as head of the Welsh Assembly Government.

The Labour hustings meeting, following four previous events in Rhyl, Narberth, Newport and Swansea, is not open to the wider public or media.

A television audience will also be able to see them taking part in the BBC Wales debate in front of a public audience later on Thursday night. The programme was recorded on Wednesday.

Dragon's Eye Debates, chaired by Betsan Powys, is broadcast at 2245 BST on Thursday BBC One Wales.

Three leg race to replace a three legged duck

Perhaps there are simply three legs to any race, even if three's a crowd:

Leg 1: Speculation surrounding who will put themselves forward for leadership.

Leg 2: Hopefuls dropping out and rallying round their favourite.

Leg 3: One contender entering contest to draw support from one camp in order for another contender to sail through and win.

Don't look at me. You were also thinking it!

Appealing to the masses

Just as one leader is about to make himself more appealing with the aid of voluntary work, another aims to make an appeal to the masses via a more direct appeal straight to the heart of party sympathisers (and mainly Welsh speaking).

N.B. No Labour AM has formally declared they intend to stand for the party's leadership. But Carwyn Jones, Merthyr Tydfil and Rhymney AM Huw Lewis and Gower AM and Health Minister Edwina Hart are all thought to be preparing campaigns.

Stay tuned but don't hold your breath over Summer.

Rhodri Morgan Appreciation Society revisited

From time to time I keep my eye on Rhodri's fans on Facebook. You may remember my report back in August 2008:

Back in September 2007 a Facebooker set-up the group 'Rhodri Morgan Appreciation Society'. The group had 20 members when the above snapshot was taken in January 2008.

"This group is for people who think that Rhodri Morgan has been a great leader of the Welsh Labour Party and a Brilliant First Minister of Wales. Rhodri Morgan has lead Wales a progressive direction over his years as First Minister. With good socialist policies like free prescriptions, or his support for the Welsh Language, Rhodri Morgan has done a lot to improve Wales, and help the worst off in Wales."

Still at 20 members at today's date, it seems that not many Facebookers agree with the above statement. Glad to see that Alun Davies AM and Joyce Watson AM are members. Are the other Labour AMs trying to tell us something?

On the plus side for our great leader, only 4 Facebookers belong to Rhodri's other group, 'Is it just just me or does Rhodri Morgan need a new suit?'

"A group totally dedicated to the fact old Rhodri has looked shabby in his
suit for years. Surely its high time the old man of welsh politics bought a new
suit?"

In Rhodri's final (depending on expected and unexpected circumstances) year, the membership has risen to 32, and 6 respectively. Makes you wonder why more Labour AM Facebookers haven't joined up with the growing number of fans.

Who'll be the first to set up the Carwyn Jones or Huw Lewis Appreciation Society?

Switzerland is known for chocolate, cheese, taxation, and banking

In light of the Icelandic issue, Nick Bourne AM recalls a question from a recent meeting of the Assembly Finance Committee that was raised by Labour AM Huw Lewis.

"Astoundingly, though money tends to be drawn down from Whitehall, neither the minister nor his officials did not know in response to questions from Huw Lewis where WAG banked nor how much was held in the accounts - reassuring isn’t it?"

This has unexpectedly prompted Rhodri Morgan to take action, and could it be the reason why he's taken a trip to Switzerland days before an All-Wales economic summit meeting? After all, he doesn't seem to be there for the joyous singing of hymns.

What's that pin number again?

Comment of the Week

Reviewing the comments on this blog I came across this piece of public relations:

I have to say, all these attacks on Leighton seem to be driven by jealousy. He is a highly effective and popular local AM who, unlike most of them, also happens to attract half-decent staff who happen to know their arse from their elbow.

Its no coincidence that Huw Lewis and Leighton Andrews have the best researchers in the Labour group. They are talented and exciting politicians who allow their staff the freedom to work on their own initiative so they always attract the most talented, loyal and long-serving helpers.

Carwyn's office, on the other hand...

It seems the role of political researcher is one to promote the leadership of their particular Assembly Member before Rhodri Morgan stands down. Hmm... if I'm a researcher and work for him while he's an AM/Deputy Minister, I wonder what my job description will be when he's Labour Leader/First Minister...

Comment of the Week

Reviewing the Welsh blogs, I came across this little gem, by a reader named Rhys. The comment refers to the recent announcement on the subject of a payrise for AMs, which includes extra money for Whips and Committee Chairs.

The real scandal is that Carl Sargeant [as Labour Chief Whip] will still be getting paid £26,000 'on top' of his £50,000, just to remind his fellow champagne socialists how to vote as Labour Whip... Seriously, how can it cost the Welsh taxpayer £26 grand to tell Huw Lewis that he should vote with his government?

Couldn't a post-it note do it more effectively, leaving the remaining £25,999.20 to be put to something worthwhile, like say persuading a dentist not to abandon the NHS?

Well, I thought it was amusing [ever so slightly], athough I do think that a post-it note would also be needed for the desk of Lynne Neagle, so make that £25,998.40 - all the others seem to be in the palm of Rhodri's hand.

Drowning in Clear Red-Green Water

I am so pleased that an Assembly Member has pointed out that John Griffiths, AM for Newport East was waffling such utter nonsense when he appeared on the Politics Show last Sunday.

As Huw Lewis AM states, "I am at turns intrigued, bewildered and not a little worried by this political pitch."

In my view, Huw Lewis, AM for Merthyr Tydfil and Rhymney was short changed when sacked from the Welsh Assembly Government before a coalition was formed with Plaid Cymru this year. Huw may be anti-Plaid/Nationalism, but he is an able politician and one of a very few Labour AMs that punch above their weight, or even deserve their seat in the Assembly.

The reason behind Huw's dismissal made him an easy sacrifice for Rhodri Morgan to make, but to leave talentless fools such as John Griffiths in government is inexcusable. Even the irony doesn't escape us, with him being a Deputy Minister with special responsibility for skills. Not to mention the hypocrisy of a government minister appointed by the Queen and swearing an oath to Her Majesty, while also known as a staunch republican, albeit in the closet when it suits.

Perhaps I underestimated Rhodri Morgan's strategy in doing this, and that he's actually thinking long-term and about how Labour will survive post coalition. After all, someone has to make waves when it comes to Plaid's ambition and that is a tall order now that they are in government, which may take more effort than the work of just one man.

And that is because the 'Red-Green' label is just that – a label

Speaking as a woman, when I go shopping, I may be attracted to labels, however, most of them end up in the bin at the end of the day.