Thought of the Moment... Carwynista

A Changing Wales, and at a Faster Pace?

Not only is Wikipedia showing that Welsh Labour leader and First Minister designate Carwyn Jones is a Rt Hon, and before even becoming First Minister, but I also discover that the Welsh media is abundant with absent script, short sentenced 'new' Welsh speaking AMs who have taken the opportunity to step out into the sunshine for the first time since Autumn has ended and Winter has begun.

Please form an orderly queue before a warm Winter chat and confirmation on the FM's balcony.

Looking back, what surprises me? A large and more than generous donation to the campaign. How desperate can one person be? Surprise? On second thought, no!

The Greatest Show on Earth*

The winner of the race to succeed Rhodri Morgan as leader of Labour in Wales and first minister in the Welsh assembly will be announced later.

The result will be announced at about 1730 GMT at the Wales Millennium Centre in Cardiff Bay.

Eligible to vote are Welsh Labour party members, affiliated groups such as trade unions, and its MPs, AMs and MEP.

The candidates are all AMs, with Carwyn Jones widely seen as the front runner, followed by Edwina Hart and Huw Lewis.

Whoever wins is due to be confirmed as first minister just over a week later.

The two-month election campaign began formally when Mr Morgan confirmed on 1 October that he was standing down, shortly after his 70th birthday.

Mr Morgan has held the top job in Wales since February 2000, and said it was the right time to go.

In Mr Morgan's current cabinet, Mr Jones is counsel general, or the assembly government's chief legal adviser, and leader of the house, who is in charge of getting government business through the assembly.

The vote is split equally three ways between:

• Party members
• Labour-affiliated trade unions and other organisations
• Elected AMs, MPs and the party's one MEP for Wales.

Members voted by ranking the candidates in order of preference on the ballot papers.
If one candidate has more than 50% of the vote after the first round of counting, the candidate with the lowest number of votes will be eliminated and their second preferences transferred to the remaining two to decide the winner.

* just watch Facebook profiles, groups, and blogs disappear overnight.

A sign of things to come...

The friend or foe debate

The final Labour party debate between the three candidates hoping to succeed Rhodri Morgan as leader in Wales will take place in Cardiff later.

The winner, announced in December, will also become Welsh First Minister.

Health Minister Edwina Hart, Counsel General Carwyn Jones and and AM Huw Lewis will argue their case before party members at Cardiff County Hall.

The three candidates can also be seen going head-to-head on Dragon's Eye on BBC One Wales tonight.

Voting by Welsh Labour members, local parties, affiliated groups, MPs, AMs and its MEP ends on 26 November.

The victor is due to be declared at around 1600 GMT on Tuesday, 1 December.

But the winner will have to wait around a week after that before her or she is confirmed as head of the Welsh Assembly Government.

The Labour hustings meeting, following four previous events in Rhyl, Narberth, Newport and Swansea, is not open to the wider public or media.

A television audience will also be able to see them taking part in the BBC Wales debate in front of a public audience later on Thursday night. The programme was recorded on Wednesday.

Dragon's Eye Debates, chaired by Betsan Powys, is broadcast at 2245 BST on Thursday BBC One Wales.

Silly season comes home to leadership battle that hasn't begun

It's what Rhodri Morgan would want and hope for, but only gives journalists something to print during quieter times. Jane Hutt seemingly lays out her stall, however, pundits know that she's nothing to sell, no cash in the till, and not as personable as other stall owners.

EDUCATION Minister Jane Hutt has laid out a vision of how Labour in Wales can fight inequality and win the trust of the electorate ahead of Westminster and Assembly elections.

In a move that will be widely interpreted as setting out her leadership ambitions, the Vale of Glamorgan AM has given a rare interview highlighting the pressing need to narrow the gap between the nation’s haves and have-nots.

Despite remaining tight-lipped about her intentions (good of the Western Mail to prise it out of her most inner thoughts), Ms Hutt is increasingly seen as a contender to succeed Rhodri Morgan as First Minister if, as expected, he announces his retirement in the autumn.

Appealing to the masses

Just as one leader is about to make himself more appealing with the aid of voluntary work, another aims to make an appeal to the masses via a more direct appeal straight to the heart of party sympathisers (and mainly Welsh speaking).

N.B. No Labour AM has formally declared they intend to stand for the party's leadership. But Carwyn Jones, Merthyr Tydfil and Rhymney AM Huw Lewis and Gower AM and Health Minister Edwina Hart are all thought to be preparing campaigns.

Stay tuned but don't hold your breath over Summer.

Edwina Hart giving an interview (tick). Edwina Hart for First Minister (?)

Those of you that were watching BBC Wales' Dragon's Eye politics programme this evening experienced a rare treat - Edwina Hart, Assembly Member for Gower, and Minister for Health in Rhodri Morgan's Labour-led One Wales Government, giving an interview.

Edwina is a politician that likes, you could even say loves, getting stuck into any portfolio she's given, and with mixed success. It's hardly a Wales-wide secret that she loathes giving interviews. You could even say that she avoids them like the plague, or even an awkward announcement on health policy in South Wales. Sadly, she doesn't even prefer standing at the 'ministerial bench', and prefers to sit and read aloud notes during a plenary session.

Could it be that she's actually seriously considering standing for the Labour leadership?

Is Edwina pondering?

Taking one step closer to a new Welsh Assembly Government

Turnout in the ballot for the new Welsh Liberal Democrat leader is expected to exceed that of the party's other recent leadership elections across the UK.

Not only will the National Assembly have its first female leader but can we expect a new Welsh Assembly Government to be formed in the not too distant future? After all, new leaders come equipped with new bridges and opportunities.

The ballot to replace Mike German closes at noon and the winner will be announced later today.

A total of 62% of ballots had already been returned to the party's Wales HQ in Cardiff Bay by Friday afternoon.

The two candidates are Cardiff Central AM Jenny Randerson and Kirsty Williams, Brecon and Radnorshire AM.

The Welsh Liberal Democrats 'outgoing leader' Mr German welcomed the arrival of a female successor, saying: “I believe it will be very significant and should bring a change of character to the Assembly.”

Playing the Regeneration Game

Rhondda AM Leighton Andrews has ruled himself out as a contender to replace First Minister Rhodri Morgan as leader of Welsh Labour. The rest of us did that a year last September.

Hurry up and take the photograph David, because now we're on our own.

Early Christmas present for Minister's constituents

Counsel General and Leader of the House Carwyn Jones AM has new office in town [Bridgend].

According to the Glamorgan Gazette, Minister Jones (unsure if we're allowed to call him Minister - not officially) is aiming to become Bridgend’s most accessible politician by taking up a new office in the town centre.

He is dipping into his own pocket to rent the former Mortgage House premises, at the top of pedestrianised Caroline Street, from landlords Compute Bridgend.

Mr Jones’ office is currently to be found at the top of a steep flight of stairs above Townsend Florist in Queen Street, Bridgend.

He said:

I’ve had a very generous landlady until now but I need somewhere more accessible as people have been struggling up the stairs to see me.

It’s important to be in the centre of Bridgend and I’m very grateful to be given the opportunity, which was too good to turn down.

I’ll have to finance some of it myself given the present state of allowances but it will give the accessibility people need.

I’ll still come out and visit people in their homes and hold surgeries in the community.

Welsh Labour members take note when voting for your new leader next year (if the main man doesn't stay on a while longer). Bridgend constituents take note while out Christmas shopping and overcome with the urge to reciprocate the Christmas cheer when passing Carwyn's new office.

[Pippa Wagstaff is currently on a blogging break]

Liberal Democrats are thankful for small mercies

In a one-liner, "Gossip mag Opik loses presidential bid".

The vote though might well be remembered more for who lost, than for who won.

In the running were two relative unknowns and one all-too-well-known.

The winner was Baroness Ros Scott, the former group leader of Suffolk County Council.

Businessman Chandila Fernando promised to modernise the party's machinery. And the most recognised name of the three, Lembit Opik, offered a presidency painted in "primary colours".

The party leader, Nick Clegg, will be sighing with relief.

It was widely thought that Baroness Scott was his preferred candidate. In fact, the deputy leader Vince Cable officially endorsed her.

The result:

Ros Scott: 20,736 votes (72%)

Lembit Opik: 6247 votes (22%)

Chandila Fernando 1799 votes (6%)

One thing's for sure - Randerson won't be sleeping soundly tonight.

Senedd Circular w/b 20 Oct 2008: Opening Old Wounds

This article appears in The Wardman Wire:

This week, Miss Wagstaff has been excited and down in the dumps at the same time, if that’s at all possible. On the one hand, she’s unwell, and on the other she has the opportunity to write a Senedd Circular post that is long overdue.

We can safely put leadership elections on the back burner for a while, the Welsh Labour leadership election has been talked to death [well, nearly!] and the Welsh Liberal Democrat election is a two-horse race that is slowly gaining momentum – and both always seem to be topical on Welsh blogs.

Plenty has happened since my last post to this column, though it appears that nothing changes when it comes to a rift between the Commons and Assembly, MPs versus AM’s in what one leading Welsh blogger has described as “…the Welsh Affairs Select Committee’s response to the housing LCO suggests that it is, illegally, attempting to make itself the Assembly's upper house.” and by another as a constitutional stand-off between the National Assembly and the Welsh Affairs Committee of the House of Commons.

You can always predict when disaster and controversy will strike at the heart of the Assembly, and it’s usually when Lord Elis-Thomas opens his bi-lingual mouth. Bi-lingual in terms of speaking - both as an Assembly Member and Presiding Officer - and occasionally mixing the two when convenient. Not this week. Though it has opened old wounds with a former adversary.

This week’s main tension comes from the to-ing and fro-ing of work by the House of Commons Welsh Affairs Select Committee and our own National Assembly. This has resulted in resident villain [usually], or as others call him, Presiding Officer Lord Elis-Thomas [Dafydd Elis-Thomas to his friends, I’m told] in having to stick his nose in where it needs to be for a change - in policing the remit of LCO's. His lordship has taken time out to write to two-time Welsh Secretary Paul Murphy, expressing concerns and accusing the Welsh Affairs Select Committee of MPs of "anti-devolution sentiment". Elis-Thomas is no stranger to offering his opinion on a whole range of ‘constitutional’ matters.

It may sound odd, but even other Assembly members have queued up behind the Presiding Officer, not just fellow Plaid members this time, and called for him to be heard as the voice of reason.

This fistfight between Commons and Assembly has happened before and was largely seen as a straight fight, with the Assembly’s proposal dumped from a great height without sound – simply no remit to turn this into law. This time it’s different.

The present bout over the Welsh Assembly Government's request for powers to legislate over the so-called right-to-buy-scheme. In short, the Welsh Ministers are asking for more than they originally sought and are being ticked off by the Welsh Affairs Select Committee. The committee’s jabbing response is one of - you do have the right to do both, but you only discussed suspension of the right-to-buy when you talked to us about it originally. Because of this we believe you should stay within the original draft.

On this occasion the common sense approach is needed as much agreed by those that generally take a step back from those MPs that it directly affects. MPs do seem to be interfering too deeply into matters concerning the remit of the WASC when it comes to dealing with LCOs. Their role as committee members is to work within the remit of the Government of Wales Act when it comes to guiding LCOs through their part of the process. Anything more, and they run the risk of being accused of standing in the way of devolution, the Assembly, sometimes their party colleagues, and what their future has in store for them.

Too much interference may stave off extinction of some of their numbers, and will – in some cases – harm their legacy as Welsh politicians. Common sense and mutual trust is a must, but sometimes hard to come by, even within members of the same party.

And finally…

A welcome back to blogging to my old friend, Matt Wardman after his short trip to Wales, where he took in the ‘To blog or not to blog’ debate. I hope it was all worthwhile after the blogging banter that arose beforehand, and that the best side won.

Since writing this article it seems that blogging won the day, although I turn my face as there was much stick for anonymous bloggers – “Not accountable? True enough. Not reliable sources? Fair enough. Malicious? Some can be. Unchristian? Now hang on ... “

I’m still not convinced that I should ‘out’ myself!

What if...

Following on from Senedd Whip's earlier post speculating on Eluned Morgan MEP's gap two-years, my mind started to wonder or even wander over a glass or two of wine.

What if... Welsh Labour have designs on Eluned Morgan becoming leader in Wales. She is a woman and we all know that they prefer equal representation in Welsh democracy (and even in the civil service, moving on to Dame Gillian Morgan from Sir Jon Shortridge).

What if... Jane Davidson AM was persuaded to 'resign' her seat in the National Assembly, after all, it could be for personal reasons and she hasn't got to disclose them if she leaves sooner than expected. No scandal over an unnecessary by-election. She's already forewarned us about her intention to stand down in 2011.

What if... First Minister Rhodri Morgan considers it a good idea to prolong the leadership contest, after all he's feeling better and healthier than he has done for years; and is known for supporting Labour-friends above and beyond the call of duty, as seen with Ministers Jane and Jane.

What if... a by-election was called in Pontypridd before 2011 and a certain leading figure in Welsh Labour and constituent friend of Rhodri's was 'convinced' to stand for the good of the party, and won.

What if... the leadership contest of the Welsh Labour party was then held after a reasonable and respectable amount of time post by-election, and certain 'said constituency friend' of Rhodri Morgan had the backing of the man himself, the Welsh Labour party, and the unions.

This would - of course - annoy quite a few members in the process.

They say that 'What if...' is a game for scholars, of which I am not... but... what if...

Eluned Morgan MEP: Open parachute

The plane is flying over from Brussels and the cargo door is clearly open. Everything depends on how good the pilot's skills are, and the need to take into account his vision. The parachute is also visible and open. It's all down to how safely she can land in either Cardiff West or Pontypridd.

Born in 1967, she was educated at Atlantic College and the University of Hull. Eluned formerly worked as a researcher for S4C, and the BBC, and in 1990 worked as a Stagiaire in the European Parliament. She was the youngest MEP when she took up her seat in 1994 as the Labour member for Mid & West Wales and was subsequently re-elected in 1999 and 2004 as MEP for Wales.

Update:

In her letter to the Labour party on standing down to spend time with her family, Ms Morgan correctly refers to the party in saying "The Labour Party is my family" and remembered to thank the unions, "I would also like to thank the trade unions with whom I have cooperated with over the years to ensure that the voice of the worker has been heard in the corridors of Brussels where more has been done to further social rights than anywhere else."

In the bag, just not in time to take the leadership as well... unless....

Just saying!

The wrong Jane is leaving government

Betsan Powys of the BBC provides up with a quick bit of news before she heads off to conference:

Jane Davidson, thought of at one time as a possible Labour leadership candidate, has told her party in Pontypridd that she's standing down at the next Assembly election. She made it clear last year that she wouldn't be going for the leadership but told a meeting last night that she won't fight the seat in 2011.

Jane Hutt on the other hand will also be leaving the government in 2011 by other means.

Mike German takes a bow

The BBC have reported that the Welsh Liberal Democrats leader Mike German is to step down at his party's autumn conference later.

Mr German, 63, who was a former deputy first minister, has been at the helm of his party in Cardiff Bay since the assembly was set up in 1999. He has also been leader of the Welsh Liberal Democrats for the last year.

Mr German will warn there is a danger of the Welsh Assembly being left behind by the devolution movement in his speech at Clydach, near Swansea. He will warn that while Wales is grappling with the question of law-making powers, Scotland is racing ahead by pushing for more financial autonomy.

Ahead of the speech, aides said Mr German will declare unionism "dead" and say that in the future the devolution debate will be between supporters of a federal Britain and independence.

Party activists will discuss a long list of amendments to the party's constitution at the two-day conference. These include changes to the way candidates to succeed Mr German, who has vowed to keep out of the contest for next leader, are nominated.

Immediately after the assembly elections in May 2007, Liberal Democrat AM Peter Black called for Mr German to go. He said the party needed a leader with a "fresh mandate".

Fellow assembly member Kirsty Williams has already declared her candidacy for the job and is supported by Peter Black.

Two colleagues in Cardiff Bay, Jenny Randerson and Eleanor Burnham, are deciding whether to stand against Ms Williams.

The BBC asked back in March 2007... Has anyone else at this conference noticed the striking similarity between the Liberal Democrats' assembly member for Brecon & Radnor, Kirsty Williams, and the socialist French presidential hopeful Ségolène Royal? Or is it just that they happen to share the same burning ambition for leadership?

Kirsty will be hoping that she doesn't suffer the same fate.

Comment of the Week

Reviewing the comments on this blog I came across this piece of public relations:

I have to say, all these attacks on Leighton seem to be driven by jealousy. He is a highly effective and popular local AM who, unlike most of them, also happens to attract half-decent staff who happen to know their arse from their elbow.

Its no coincidence that Huw Lewis and Leighton Andrews have the best researchers in the Labour group. They are talented and exciting politicians who allow their staff the freedom to work on their own initiative so they always attract the most talented, loyal and long-serving helpers.

Carwyn's office, on the other hand...

It seems the role of political researcher is one to promote the leadership of their particular Assembly Member before Rhodri Morgan stands down. Hmm... if I'm a researcher and work for him while he's an AM/Deputy Minister, I wonder what my job description will be when he's Labour Leader/First Minister...

The legacy of Rhodri Morgan

Spoken from the mouth of Bethan Jenkins AM, our youngest (and very active) Assembly member:

...It made me realise that we must push forward with enhancing Wales's links with the wider International community- as Wales, and not merely as part of the UK. Surely if people believe in devolution, they can see a strong case for us attending such meetings, and promoting Wales as a serious force in the World?

Perhaps not, that is for Rhodri Morgan to discuss now that he has conceded to consider this as a viable option for Wales.

After all, he has nothing to lose in doing so, especially as he is stepping down as First Minister very soon. Surely he wants his legacy to be much more than providing free transport for the elderly? (Regardless of how important this is to those that benefit from it)

Get a move on First Minister - It's time to shake a leg, get your skates on, as the sale must end soon.

The young of Wales are voicing their opinions as to your lack of contribution to the top job.

Senedd Circular w/b 25 May 2008: Them dry bones

This article appears in The Wardman Wire:

Putting up with the stench of a dead Labour carcass, can never be described as 'robust and fun', unlike the party politics of an unhealthy party political election battle. But to lose one Labour seat in 12 months may be regarded as a misfortune, to lose two looks like damn right carelessness [thanks Oscar]. Let this Labour candidate put it all down to experience, and perhaps there will be a third time lucky - if there's a constituency that's willing to pull a well-worn application form, out from a rather tired looking red bin.

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This week, Miss Wagstaff has been climbing down from a high octane family weekend, only to pick at the odd bits of Welsh news before raking over the bones of the Labour electoral turmoil of weeks past... it seems that it will take a while before we get over recent events – London fell; Councils fell; then it was the turn of Crewe and Nantwich. It's no wonder that God invented recess!

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Attacking opponents from the last century

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In times of trouble – yes, right now - Rhodri Morgan, Wales' Labour First Minister, specialises in rummaging around in the Conservative party's distant past in order to score points, just as you or I might place our rubber-gloved-hands into the toilet pan in order to give it a good scrub with a well-used scouring pad and disinfectant, that have been sitting in the cupboard for more time than we care to remember, and now used as a desperate measure. He doesn't just do it for the press either, and can be heard to chant his anti-Conservative [Tory, of course] mantra in the Senedd too. What's always been interesting here is that Morgan rarely comments on current Conservative policy and where they are as a party at the moment. It's also not what he says that's at fault, but what he doesn't say. This makes him shockingly old-school, and predictably average.

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Put aside UK Labour politics for a moment as the problem has also spread to Welsh Labour politics. Welsh Labour needs a new leader and has found itself having to wait for a countdown not dissimilar to that of a Eurovision Song Contest, whereby the end result may be expected to a certain degree, but not wanted as a whole. The majority of us will have to wait for BBC Wales' own 'Terry Wogan' to remind us that the contest has started, and for us to take our seats.

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Glad confident mourning

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On the other side of the fence, David Cameron may be a UK party leader, but his pronouncement last week that Labour's recent performance showed the "death of New Labour" left many wondering whether to start mourning; its tremor was certainly felt in Wales, particularly in the North and South, where current Labour MPs must be putting mathematical skills to good use, before wondering whether to hit the panic button.

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Morgan's advice in the meantime is for Labour to hold firm, and not to split and turn in on itself. Miss Wagstaff suggests holding onto your hats, as a storm is brewing. Others may suggest holding on to something else, but I fear that would be too late to prevent excruciating pain.

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And finally…

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As a final thought, the words of Douglas Adams spring to mind... Don't panic!

Senedd Circular w/b 04 May 2008: Rounding Up the Blogs

Matt Wardman has been rounding up the daffodils earlier and Miss Wagstaff had a night on the tiles (allegedly). So this is “Matt” standing in this week with a special “link blog” Senedd Circular roundup.

Blog Snippets

• Coalition deals sideline Labour
• Lib Dem German to quit in autumn
• New language rule for 57 bodies: thou shalt deliver thy services in Welsh. (I have not yet found out whether the Wardman Wire is on list, but another 57 makes 493 ).

Rounding up the Daffodils/cennin Pedr

There’s a big kerfuffle happening about cennin Pedr and why they should be purchased in Wales and not imported from foreign climes such as Cornwall (for example). Read these links to understand:

• Cennin Pedr in Rural Wales .
• Cennin Pedr and the Professor .
• My take on Cennin Pedr and Free Trade.

I wonder whether someone is going to appeal for a European Union Protected Designation for daffodils as Welsh. If so - prepare to get sued by the Ghost of Wordsworth .

In would be more fun if the Welsh did “red-faced nationalists on the point of exploding”. Unfortunately they don’t; that’s just Tunbridge Wells, a certain brand of Conservative, and Alex.

The Gossip

And - on the gossip front - I only just tumbled to the fact that Blamerbell the Underpants is a sibling of young Ms Jenkins from the Senedd .

Ordovicius tells me that “everyone (apart from me, apparently - pity the English) knows about “the Jenkins Clan from the Rhondda”. [I thought they were from Merthyr]

Isaac Asimov had a race from outer space called the Jenkinsites who survived by carrying a cylinder of cyanide gas to breathe - as that was the atmosphere on their home planet. I’m sure there’s no connection - the Asimov Jenkinsites also had six legs and a carapace.

Wrapping Up

Ok - enough. Miss Wagstaff is back next week.